Syria responds

Yet again Syria has responded to anti government protests in the most brutal manner. Despite being given opportunity after opportunity to lead the reforms Bashar Al Asaad has chosen to take the path of repression.
Further sanctions by the European Union are more symbolic than effective and until his patrons in Russia apply more pressure this regime will continue to kill at will. Bashars regime no doubt will demand that Hizbollah open up a front with Israel and may even go as far as limited operations in the Golan to try to divert the momentum of anti government protesters and frighten an already tense region into believing that an all out war could ensue.
For a regime to encourage further misery for it's own preservation at the expense of it's citizens and regional neighbours is barbaric. 
Signs from Moscow earlier this week were a little more encouraging and may put further pressure on Asaad  if he thinks that Russia will find his replacement.
As the economy is getting shakier by the day the ability to continue to meet the salaries of the Army,bureaucrats  and regime loyalists becomes more difficult cracks will show.
The regime will crumble from within and if  the peoples of Aleppo and Damascus which so far have been relatively quite but have  shown signs of stirring, join the other anti regime protesters the regime is all but doomed and anything that Iran or Hizbollah could concoct would be futile.
Repression does not work and the Arab determination to be free from tyranny will not disappear. If Bashar and his bloodthirsty brother are not brought to account soon then more innocent lives will be sacrificed.

From Spring to Summer

As the Western hemisphere officially celebrates the the first day of summer Syria braces itself for what could be a decisive and bloody Friday . The Arab spring is now the Arab Summer.
After a  weak speech  by Bashar Al Asaad that signaled that the regime was unable and unwilling to reform despite international calls for him to implement change and caused thousands to pour onto the streets to show their disappointment, it has become self evident that his rule is in it's dying throes.
With the economy in shambles and the population no longer appeased by his vague references for a national dialogue and blaming saboteurs,foreign conspirators and germs as the cause of the Syrians people's desire for freedom after more than four decades of autocratic rule, it is time for more pressure to be applied by the international community.
Despite the lack of a military will  by  the World powers more help is needed to stop the mass and habitual killing of protesters.
Syria will no doubt implode from the inside if the economy continues to slide. As one diplomat put it "When they are no longer capable of paying the salaries of bureaucrats, the army, the police and their Alawite militia this crisis will balloon and bring about the collapse of the regime,this is a train wreck waiting to happen." Signs of stretched resources and fraying loyalties are already apparent so let us hope that Russian reticence to a meaningful United Nations resolution condemning the regime remains only as that and no financial assistance is afforded to it so it can continue the brutality so far displayed.
By allowing the slaughter of his own people for the preservation of himself and his inner circle  has he lost any semblance of legitimacy and should be tried for crimes against humanity. This regime can not be part of a reform process with so much blood on it's hands.

The silence of the lambs

In only his third address since the uprising began in March, Bashar Al Assad managed to talk without saying anything of significance. Blaming the current unrest on conspirators he looked confused as he waffled on to a handpicked audience.
The International Community 's reticence about regime change given the fiasco in Libya has meant that the embattled President will continue to slaughter his civilians with impunity.Whilst there are calls for Turkey to apply more regional pressure the Russian resistance for any meaningful United Nations resolution in effect gives this homicidal regime a carte blanch for mass murder.
Instead of using this opportunity for significant reform and to curtail his psychopathic brother Maher's growing blood lust, the Good Doctor like many dictators have done lays the blame squarely on others. With a pro Assad government in Lebanon he might buy himself a little more time but that is all.
This regime has proved itself to be past its sell by date. His legitimacy has expired. Let us hope that internal squabbles in Moscow do not continue to hamper efforts to properly sanction the crimes this regime perpetuates on a daily basis against it's citizens and that the Lebanese do the right thing instead of being a pawn in this megalomaniacs arsenal.
This is the real silence of the lambs.

Russia Syria and Iran

A tragedy of significant proportions is unfolding before our eyes in the continuation of the monstrous  crimes against humanity being committed by the Assad regime. As Russia's last important sphere of influence in the Arab Middle East, Moscow is hampering any  significant action by the United Nations security council critical of Syria.
With growing signs of defection amongst the Army not wishing to shoot its civilians Bashars  bloodthirsty and homicidal brother Maher who heads up both the Republican Guard and the 4th Army Division, of whom the 120  soldiers who were killed defected from, has relied on Iranian mercenaries to continue the slaughter.
Reports from Syrians fleeing to Turkey confirm their presence.
This regime will never reform and will always use torture and slaughter as a mainstay of their power.
The Russians have a huge role to play if they don't want Syria out of it's orbit. The killings can not continue and those  responsible for the barbaric genocides including but not limited to Bashar , Maher and their brother in law  General Assef Shawqat have to be tried at the Hague.
The International Community have to find a reforming successor quick and if Russia want to remain influential and have a possibility of a Mediterranean naval base and a good geopolitical ally they should pave the way.
With Moscow having a good working relationship with Tehran , Farsi mercenaries are not the answer and Moscow must make it clear to the Iranians.
Russia has found Iran a useful ally in a host of political hot spots. In Chechnya, despite the use by the Chechen rebels of Islamic themes in their conflict with Russia, Iran kept a very low profile. In Tajikistan, Iran helped Russia achieve a political settlement, albeit a shaky one. In Afghanistan, Russia and Iran stood together against Taliban efforts to seize control over the country. They work together in relation to Azerbaijan, which neither Iran (with a sizable Azeri population) nor Russia wishes to see emerge as a significant power. In particular, the two states have worked to limit the development of Caspian Sea-area hydrocarbons by Azerbaijan, Kazakstan and Turkmenistan. In addition, as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expands eastward and Turkish influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia increases, many Russian nationalists see close Russian-Iranian relations as a counterbalance.Syria has to be saved from this blood thirsty regime.
So they should find an alternative  leader who will remain sympathetic to their empire mentality and desires but acknowledges the Syrians aspirations to be free from tyranny and fear and the right to choose their destiny.
Otherwise they will lose any remaining credibility in the geopolitical outcome and become irrelevant as Asaad will no longer be tolerated by the world at large. 

Syria and the Russians.

Russia having already conceded Libya and abandoned Mad Mo and his cronies to NATO and the Wests decision for regime change  looks likely to resist losing Syria and it's bloodthirsty Leader.Though the Good Doctor has brandished his homicidal credentials with virtual impunity , the International Community has at last started to recognize that a hypocritical approach to diplomacy is no longer tenable . Arguments that Bashar Al Asaad was essentially a reformer have been silenced in the wake of the massacres and atrocities that regime have recently committed .
Israel a one time advocate that Assad should stay on the premise that they have been enjoying a cold peace can no longer credibly sustain that argument with Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak acknowledging that Asaad has lost legitimacy. If Israel has to shoot and kill unarmed civilians as they did last week as they attempt to cross the border whatever sympathy they might still retain will vanish. That may be the game changer for Assads departure.
The internal power struggle between the Russian President Dimitry Medvedev and his predecessor Vladimir Putin  that made Russia abandon Gaddafi  may not come into play with Syria as the stakes are higher with  Russian navel ships based at the port of Tartus being a potential Mediterranean military base, the  loss of Syria from its sphere of influence would be a severe blow both  politically and militarily. However if they can guarantee who will succeed they will dump Asaad faster than you can say perestroika. He is no longer a bankable proposition as he ventures further into the depths of depravity that his father and uncle knew so well.  Given the loss of Libya, and in the past the loss of Egypt then Iraq and Yemen and the waning influence it has in Algeria, it would be unimaginable that they would not have a plan B, and if that doesn't work there are another twenty four letters in the alphabet.
What is certain is that Asaads days are numbered.
At this point confusion seems to be the order of the day with the Chinese so far being the only long term winners.