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Willing to listen not frightened to speak.

Friday 10 June 2011

Russia Syria and Iran



A tragedy of significant proportions is unfolding before our eyes in the continuation of the monstrous  crimes against humanity being committed by the Assad regime. As Russia's last important sphere of influence in the Arab Middle East, Moscow is hampering any  significant action by the United Nations security council critical of Syria.
With growing signs of defection amongst the Army not wishing to shoot its civilians Bashars  bloodthirsty and homicidal brother Maher who heads up both the Republican Guard and the 4th Army Division, of whom the 120  soldiers who were killed defected from, has relied on Iranian mercenaries to continue the slaughter.
Reports from Syrians fleeing to Turkey confirm their presence.
This regime will never reform and will always use torture and slaughter as a mainstay of their power.
The Russians have a huge role to play if they don't want Syria out of it's orbit. The killings can not continue and those  responsible for the barbaric genocides including but not limited to Bashar , Maher and their brother in law  General Assef Shawqat have to be tried at the Hague.
The International Community have to find a reforming successor quick and if Russia want to remain influential and have a possibility of a Mediterranean naval base and a good geopolitical ally they should pave the way.
With Moscow having a good working relationship with Tehran , Farsi mercenaries are not the answer and Moscow must make it clear to the Iranians.
Russia has found Iran a useful ally in a host of political hot spots. In Chechnya, despite the use by the Chechen rebels of Islamic themes in their conflict with Russia, Iran kept a very low profile. In Tajikistan, Iran helped Russia achieve a political settlement, albeit a shaky one. In Afghanistan, Russia and Iran stood together against Taliban efforts to seize control over the country. They work together in relation to Azerbaijan, which neither Iran (with a sizable Azeri population) nor Russia wishes to see emerge as a significant power. In particular, the two states have worked to limit the development of Caspian Sea-area hydrocarbons by Azerbaijan, Kazakstan and Turkmenistan. In addition, as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expands eastward and Turkish influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia increases, many Russian nationalists see close Russian-Iranian relations as a counterbalance.Syria has to be saved from this blood thirsty regime.
So they should find an alternative  leader who will remain sympathetic to their empire mentality and desires but acknowledges the Syrians aspirations to be free from tyranny and fear and the right to choose their destiny.
Otherwise they will lose any remaining credibility in the geopolitical outcome and become irrelevant as Asaad will no longer be tolerated by the world at large. 

1 comment:

  1. Regardless of why Ankara has changed its tune on Bashar Assad, it’s a welcome development. Without Turkey, Assad is today less insulated and more susceptible to external pressures and the regime is less secure. Indeed, Turkey is not only moving away from the Assad regime, it’s looking to help organize its successor. Last week, in a bold and forward-leaning move, Turkey hosted a conference for the Syrian opposition on its territory. The conference was a clear statement by the AKP that it has assessed that Assad is irredeemable. With a little luck, Washington will follow Turkey’s lead.

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