Russia having already conceded Libya and abandoned Mad Mo and his cronies to NATO and the Wests decision for regime change looks likely to resist losing Syria and it's bloodthirsty Leader.Though the Good Doctor has brandished his homicidal credentials with virtual impunity , the International Community has at last started to recognize that a hypocritical approach to diplomacy is no longer tenable . Arguments that Bashar Al Asaad was essentially a reformer have been silenced in the wake of the massacres and atrocities that regime have recently committed .
Israel a one time advocate that Assad should stay on the premise that they have been enjoying a cold peace can no longer credibly sustain that argument with Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak acknowledging that Asaad has lost legitimacy. If Israel has to shoot and kill unarmed civilians as they did last week as they attempt to cross the border whatever sympathy they might still retain will vanish. That may be the game changer for Assads departure.
The internal power struggle between the Russian President Dimitry Medvedev and his predecessor Vladimir Putin that made Russia abandon Gaddafi may not come into play with Syria as the stakes are higher with Russian navel ships based at the port of Tartus being a potential Mediterranean military base, the loss of Syria from its sphere of influence would be a severe blow both politically and militarily. However if they can guarantee who will succeed they will dump Asaad faster than you can say perestroika. He is no longer a bankable proposition as he ventures further into the depths of depravity that his father and uncle knew so well. Given the loss of Libya, and in the past the loss of Egypt then Iraq and Yemen and the waning influence it has in Algeria, it would be unimaginable that they would not have a plan B, and if that doesn't work there are another twenty four letters in the alphabet.
What is certain is that Asaads days are numbered.
At this point confusion seems to be the order of the day with the Chinese so far being the only long term winners.
Israel a one time advocate that Assad should stay on the premise that they have been enjoying a cold peace can no longer credibly sustain that argument with Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak acknowledging that Asaad has lost legitimacy. If Israel has to shoot and kill unarmed civilians as they did last week as they attempt to cross the border whatever sympathy they might still retain will vanish. That may be the game changer for Assads departure.
The internal power struggle between the Russian President Dimitry Medvedev and his predecessor Vladimir Putin that made Russia abandon Gaddafi may not come into play with Syria as the stakes are higher with Russian navel ships based at the port of Tartus being a potential Mediterranean military base, the loss of Syria from its sphere of influence would be a severe blow both politically and militarily. However if they can guarantee who will succeed they will dump Asaad faster than you can say perestroika. He is no longer a bankable proposition as he ventures further into the depths of depravity that his father and uncle knew so well. Given the loss of Libya, and in the past the loss of Egypt then Iraq and Yemen and the waning influence it has in Algeria, it would be unimaginable that they would not have a plan B, and if that doesn't work there are another twenty four letters in the alphabet.
What is certain is that Asaads days are numbered.
At this point confusion seems to be the order of the day with the Chinese so far being the only long term winners.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment